周五A股市场出现了探底企稳的走势,以引力传媒(603598)为代表的网红概念股,以常铝股份(002160)为代表的特斯拉概念股跌幅居前,意味着题材股炒作有退烧的态势,热钱渐有撤退的苗头。

The A-share market stabilised on Friday, with the popular concept stock, represented by gravity media (603598), and the tesla concept stock, represented by chang aluminum (002160), falling the most, meaning the theme stock hype has a fever, hot money is gradually retreating.

自2019年12月中旬以来,A股市场的成交量渐趋活跃,题材炒作升温,这主要得益于本土热钱加盟A股,从而推动着沪深两市出现了诸多崭新的题材,比如网红概念股、特斯拉概念股,此类个股的龙头品种在短期内的涨幅大多有50%,甚至出现了类似于星期六(002291)这样的200%涨幅的超级强势股。

Since mid-December 2019, the volume of A-share market has become more and more active, and the subject matter hype has heated up, mainly thanks to the local hot money to join A-share, which has led to the emergence of many new topics in Shanghai and Shenzhen, such as network red concept stocks, Tesla concept stocks, such stocks in the short term, most of the leading varieties of such stocks rose 50%, or even a 200% increase like Saturday (002291) super strong stocks.

面对如此巨大涨幅,短线热钱渐有收手的态势。因为,以往经验显示,如果不及时收手,极易引起监管部门的注意。如果到了这一步,不仅会账面浮盈难以兑现,而且还会对后续进一步的热点炒作带来不利的影响。所以,部分热钱本周以来明显有主动回撤的操作策略。星期六等龙头品种已经在股价高位出现了宽幅震荡的态势,这是典型的高位震荡减仓的操作图形。

In the face of such a huge increase, short-term hot money gradually to stop the trend. Because past experience has shown that failing to stop in time makes it easy for regulators to notice. If reached this step, not only will the book floating earnings difficult to cash in, but also will have a negative impact on the subsequent further hot speculation. Therefore, some hot money this week has apparently had the active retreat operation strategy. Saturday and other leading varieties in the high share price has appeared a wide range of shock trend, this is typical of the high shock reduction operation graphics.

也正因为如此,分析人士指出,热钱主动撤退,降温题材股的炒作,固然会对短线A股市场的演绎带来一定的压力,比如周五的A股成交量有所萎缩,再比如指数缺乏攻击性等,但也有利于后续行情的发展,因为主动降温,使得市场出现了良性调整的态势,不会引发监管部门的关注。既如此,一旦出现新的炒作题材,这些热钱就会迅速回归,从而为A股的未来走势提供新的走强契机。

Because of this, analysts point out that the active withdrawal of hot money, cooling the subject matter of speculation, of course, will bring some pressure on the short-term A-share market interpretation, such as Friday's A-share volume has shrunk, such as the lack of offensive index, but also conducive to the subsequent market development, because the active cooling, so that the market has a benign adjustment trend, will not cause regulatory attention. In that case, once a new hype theme, these hot money will quickly return, thus providing a new opportunity for the future trend of A-shares.

不过,这并不等于短线A股市场会走向沉寂。因为,A股市场除了热衷于题材炒作的短线热钱之外,还有偏爱蓝筹股、成长股的中长线资金。这些中长线资金一般采取买入、锁仓、持股的策略,所以,此类资金的持续小幅加仓,并不会带来过多的交易量,对A股的成交金额影响并不是很大,就如同在2019年二、三季度,北上资金持续加仓白酒、家电等蓝筹股,但A股的成交量变化不大一样。

However, this does not mean that the short-term A-share market will be quiet. Because, A-share market in addition to the subject matter hype short-term hot money, there is a preference for blue-chip stocks, growth stocks of medium-and long-term funds. These medium- and long-term funds generally adopt the strategy of buying, locking up positions and holding shares, so the continued small increase in such funds will not bring too much trading volume, the impact on A-share turnover is not very big, as in the second and third quarters of 2019, northbound funds continue to add liquor warehouse, home appliances and other blue-chip stocks, but A-share turnover changes are not the same.

在周五,此景再度上演。因为热钱炒作退潮,成交量有所萎缩,但以北上资金等为代表的中长线资金继续加仓。体现在盘面中,就是以古井贡酒(000596)为代表的白酒蓝筹股卷土重来,前期调整较为充分的成长股也渐趋活跃,比如以丽珠集团(000513)为代表的医药蓝筹股,以汇顶科技(603160)为代表的大市值芯片股均出现较大力度的拉升行情。

On Friday, the scene resumed. Because the hot money speculation ebbs, the volume has shrunk, but to the north capital and so on as the representative medium-and-long line funds continue to add the position. Reflected in the disk, is represented by the ancient jinggong wine (000596) liquor blue-chip return, the more fully adjusted growth stocks are also becoming more active, such as lizhu group (000513) as the representative of pharmaceutical blue-chip stocks, huiding technology (603160) as the representative of the big market chip stocks have a big pull up.

由此可见,短线A股市场的走势出现了一个较为清晰的特征,那就是短线热钱炒作降温,A股的换手率、成交金额均下降,但是,中长线资金加仓节奏仍然清晰,蓝寿股、成长股仍处于上升通道中。这可能会成为近期A股市场的一大亮点,主要是因为当前A股市场已至2020年1月份,也就意味着开启了2019年年报与2020年一季度行情的叠加周期。在此周期中,业绩的刺激力度将大大增强,白酒股、芯片股的活跃在很大程度上就是因为2019年年报有望超预期。所以,在年报业绩信息开始渐趋增多之际,此类个股的活跃度有望提振,从而为A股市场增添新的投资机会。

It can be seen that the trend of the short-term A-share market appeared a relatively clear feature, that is, short-term hot money speculation cooling, A-share turnover rate, transaction amount are down, but, the middle and long-term capital plus the rhythm of the warehouse is still clear, blue Shou shares, growth stocks are still in the rising channel. That could be a bright spot in the recent A-share market, mainly because the current A-share market has reached January 2020, meaning it opens the cycle of the 2019 annual report and the market in the first quarter of 2020. During this cycle, the performance stimulus will be greatly enhanced, with liquor stocks, chip stocks active in large part because the 2019 annual report is expected to exceed expectations. Therefore, as the annual performance information began to increase, the activity of such stocks is expected to boost, thus adding new investment opportunities for the A-share market.

综上所述,短线A股市场走势可能会相对强硬,主要是因为蓝筹股、成长股渐趋活跃,但个股交易性机会有所降低,主要是因为短线热钱有所退潮。所以,在操作中,建议市场参与者将更多的精力放在年报业绩的挖掘上,更多地关注成长股、蓝筹股的业绩刺激所带来的短线股价的拉升机会。(本文来自澎湃新闻,更多原创资讯请下载“澎湃新闻”APP)

To sum up, the short-term A-share market is likely to be relatively tough, mainly because of blue chip stocks, growing stocks are becoming more active, but the stock trading opportunities have been reduced, mainly because of the short-term hot money has declined. Therefore, in the operation, it is recommended that market participants focus more on the annual performance mining, more attention to the growth stocks, blue-chip performance stimulation brought about by the short-term stock price pull up opportunities. (For more original information, please download the \"Surging News\" app)


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